In 2024 we wrote that “M&A is back.” It came back — and then kept going. Here's where the momentum is concentrating and what each shift means for operators.

01From optimism to record volume

The cautious optimism of two years ago has been realized. Global financial-services M&A value rose 49% in 2025, powered by 93 deals over $1 billion. Rate cuts, recovering financing markets, and renewed CEO confidence turned sentiment into signatures. The watch item for 2026 isn't whether deals happen — it's whether the mega-deal concentration broadens back down into the mid-market.

02Creative structures became the default

What we flagged as “creative” in 2024 is now standard practice. Minority-stake sales, earn-outs, GP-led continuation vehicles, and evergreen / semi-liquid fund structures are how growth capital moves. As fundraising cycles lengthen, managers increasingly turn to stake sales and strategic partnerships rather than outright sales — and the secondary market has become a primary liquidity tool, not a last resort.

03Private credit is the main event

In 2024 we projected private credit growing toward $2.3T. It got there faster, and bigger. The market now sits near $1.7–2.0 trillion with credible forecasts of $3 trillion-plus by 2028–29; deployment grew roughly 78% in 2024 alone. Banks are partnering with private lenders rather than fighting them, and the largest asset managers have reorganized around the asset class — most visibly BlackRock's $12B acquisition of HPS.

The bank retreat from lending isn't a cycle to wait out. It's a structural transfer of credit to non-bank balance sheets — and it's still early.

04AI moves from pilot to P&L

The “rise of AI” we noted as an outlook item is now an operating reality. The leaders have moved past generative-AI pilots to firm-wide deployment — agentic AI in distribution, diligence, and operations, measured on efficiency and client experience, not novelty. AI is also creating the deals: Morgan Stanley estimates private credit could fund more than half of the $1.5 trillion global data-center buildout through 2028.

05Private markets, now open to everyone

The democratization we tracked has accelerated through structure, not just sentiment. Evergreen funds, model-portfolio access, direct indexing, and manager tie-ups (e.g. BlackRock–Partners Group) are dismantling the wall between retail investors and private markets. Access — not product — is the competitive battleground, and distribution is the prize buyers keep paying up for.

06The performance imperative

Even with capital easing, the discipline of the higher-for-longer era is sticking. Returns are being made in the business — finishing stalled integrations, fixing the technology debt deals create, and rebuilding the revenue engine. The firms that improve core operations are the ones positioned to keep transacting. This is the trend that matters most to us, because it's the one we're built to execute.